Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 19.694096 23.742945 28.213918 33.490189 39.518380 46.162522 54.010046
2025-07-13 14.190301 19.567511 26.120578 34.573238 45.057179 57.499839 73.238710
2025-07-20 11.042897 16.957812 24.742490 35.474077 49.594105 67.235164 90.602530
2025-07-27 9.053763 15.263197 23.986235 36.684972 54.196741 76.963698 108.193626
2025-08-03 7.528318 13.838909 23.245377 37.613988 58.246248 85.985433 125.153577
2025-08-10 6.016453 12.090387 21.702117 37.094577 60.071650 91.955009 138.199623
2025-08-17 5.030715 10.975723 20.906489 37.486361 63.079240 99.557570 153.669167
2025-08-24 4.142555 9.832045 19.866964 37.319479 65.141937 105.818573 167.440150
2025-08-31 3.256902 8.484596 18.264362 36.023762 65.297406 109.220264 177.186107
2025-09-07 2.798351 7.882994 17.867441 36.639171 68.408936 117.050016 193.557506
2025-09-14 2.249910 6.950464 16.712441 35.800814 69.068456 121.145383 204.526164
2025-09-21 1.972005 6.568249 16.550984 36.680644 72.565896 129.698151 222.409494
2025-09-28 1.440842 5.438681 14.776342 34.545097 71.050021 130.698032 229.489245
2025-10-05 1.248616 5.150538 14.733734 35.699800 75.329328 141.191800 251.727964
2025-10-12 1.070749 4.842728 14.591170 36.626913 79.241768 151.242513 273.629717
2025-10-19 0.936984 4.623548 14.611608 37.868960 83.777709 162.486953 297.788559
2025-10-26 0.807938 4.370584 14.504491 38.821575 87.816523 173.044329 321.181336
2025-11-02 0.638171 3.893316 13.745121 38.288995 89.004244 178.797364 336.972191
2025-11-09 0.532240 3.610120 13.433980 38.690717 91.979028 187.702836 358.169437
2025-11-16 0.427152 3.270871 12.899962 38.519605 93.799340 194.642449 376.304857
2025-11-23 0.314260 2.813620 11.922754 37.190905 93.195693 197.243847 387.234926
2025-11-30 0.264303 2.645411 11.774919 37.822010 96.593330 207.102667 410.688063
2025-12-07 0.197499 2.321151 11.058757 36.962256 96.830647 211.223427 424.453391